Something is changing in the internet; even in "backward" countries like Italy. It's still difficult to understand which way it's going, but the feeling is that we are really entering a new phase. To understand this it will be useful to use several different sources; but let's start with an update of the trends that this newsletter has been following for nearly three years.

All types of analyses and statistics have problems; none are perfect or totally reliable. In the last few months the European hostcount data had some technical hiccups. The problem seems to be solved in the July data, that were published by RIPE (Réesaux IP Européens) on August 6, 1999.

These are figures in the 13 European countries with over 200,000 internet hosts, compared to the same month a year and two years earlier.

Once again, there are remarkable differences in the growth patterns. The UK and Germany remain far ahead of the rest, but there are considerable changes in several other countries.

Let's look at an update of the graph for the five large countries in the European Community:

Internet hosts in 5 European countries – 1996-1999   Source: RIPE (Réseaux IP Européens) – quarterly data – numbers in thousands

Note: the minitel factor in France is not considered in this analysis.

Especially in the last twelve months the two leading countries have had relatively slower growth, but it's too soon to tell if the others are really beginning to catch up. The apparent "leap" of Italy's hostcount, following a decrease that was probably a matter of technical problems in the survey, is too short-lived, so far, to be meaningful. It will take another three months, or maybe more, to understand how the trends are changing.

There are some interesting developments and changes in the rest of Europe, as we can see in these figures.

In spite of the changes, most of the internet is still concentrated in the central and northern part of Western Europe. Of all the internet hosts in the area (that includes Europe, the Near East and part of Africa) 80 percent are in the European Union. Two thirds in ten out of 100 countries: Britain, Germany, Benelux and Scandinavia.

There are considerable differences inside each of the areas. For instance in the Balkans (that at this time are a focus of attention in Europe and worldwide) Slovenia has a much stronger presence on the internet than any other country of ex-Yugoslavia; there is fast growth in Croatia; in Serbia, in spite of the crisis, the internet is still growing (though penetration is low: less than one host per thousand inhabitants); the other countries in the area are far behind – especially Albania. In the Near East there is an enormous gap between Israel and the other countries (only the Arab Emirates have a relatively high density – six per thousand).

Now let's look at the usual graphs, beginning with density.

Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants in 28 countries   28 countries in the RIPE area with over 20,000 hosts – July 1999

The green slice of bars indicates growth in the last six months. The yellow slice of the bar for France is an estimate of the minitel factor.

The other Scandinavian countries are getting closer to Finland. The Netherlands and Belgium continue to grow much faster than the European average. Italy and Spain seem to be getting close to the higher levels in Eastern Europe, but they are still far behind the average in the European Union.

And now let's look at an update of the graph in relation to the economy (GNP).

Internet hosts in relation to income (GNP) in 28 countries   28 countries in the RIPE area with over 20,000 hosts – July 1999 luglio 1999

As in the previous graph, the green slice of bars indicates growth in the last six months. The yellow slice of the bar for France is an estimate of the minitel factor.

Italy is still very weak on this score – and so is France if we don't consider the minitel. Once again we see that Germany is weak in proportion to its economy, while some countries in Eastern Europe are very strong: especially Estonia, the Czech Republic and Hungary – but also Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland and Romania.

And finally – here is an updated map of Europe.

Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants in Europe   Analysis on data by RIPE – Réseaux IP Européens – July 1999

The stripes on France represent the minitel peculiarity.

As we have seen, the European density average is 13, just above the category shown here in pale green; the average in the European Union is 20, above the level of the dark green area.